We love Vieux Château Certan

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-10-09

As we’ve written here before, we love Vieux Chateau Certan and we’re not the only ones. The wine has always been great, but it just seems to get better and better. The ’78 recently was sublime. It seems to be quite vintage proof too, producing a highly rated 2011 (96-8 points, Neal Martin), which we have commented on before (here). Neal’s comments on the ’04 also resonate: “this is a triumph of wine over vintage”.

So, a great wine with a limited production from 14 hectares of Pomerol, a popular family as owners, a rising reputation and prices that are manageable (in the context of very fine wine). A wine trade legend recently commented “I can’t understand why every vintage of VCC doesn’t start at £200 per bottle”.First floor is next to Cheval Blanc and like the St. Emilion Grand Cru Classé A powerhouse has a lot of First floor given over to Cabernet Franc. It is planted 60% Merlot, 30% Cabernet Franc and 10% Cabernet Sauvignon and the Chateau is not scared of big selection decisions for the grand vin to achieve the best results - the ’98, for example, was 90% Merlot. For the sake of comparison, Petrus covers 11.5 hectares and is 100% Merlot.

Here are the bottle prices of various older vintages (’95 - ‘06) with WO scores:

1998 was a brilliant right bank vintage and it stands out as such. 2000 was also excellent across the board and as a result, it is more homogenous in its appeal. It is interesting to note that these older vintages are much cheaper than the (admittedly higher rated) younger versions, (’08-’16 below). Whilst on ratings, there is no doubt VCC has been achieving greater things, but wine critic’s scores have also been on the up in the last decade, meaning a modern day 97 feels more like a 93 or 94 from the noughties.

I prefer older vintages because of the faster falling supply and favour the ’98 over the ’00 for investment purposes, just. Some outright value can be found in the ’04 at a little over £100 a bottle;

NM writes: “Alexandre Thienpont having to pass through First floor six times in order to pick the grapes. It was worthwhile because this is one of the outstanding wines of the vintage, driven by the Cabernet Franc (30%). A delectable nose with wonderful purity and exuberant, peppery Cabernet Franc with touches of tar and roasted chestnuts inflected the black fruits. Superb. Drink 2015-2030+.”

Here are the Relative Value scores for the older selection:

And now for younger vintages:

In the younger vintages, the ’11 stands out. I have edited the scores just to use Neal Martin’s 96-8 score as we believe the other critics, especially Monsieur Parker, have clearly missed the beauty of this wine which is commonly touted as the wine of the vintage. NM: “It has enormous length and it is one of the very few that could be on the same ethereal plateau as the 2009 and 2010 and perhaps one day...even better”

The other notable characteristic of 2011 is that 30% Cabernet Franc made it into the final blend, and was the last vintage that had such a high Cab Franc component prior to 2018. That means more floral and aromatic character. Given VCC can often be obdurate in youth and middle age, we like vintages like 2011.

Don’t imagine either that 2011 was a poor year climatically for VCC – the numbers tell a different story: high IPT of 83, moderate alcohol at 13.6 degrees, and a relatively low in acid PH of 3.6. All of which is borne out in the glass - plenty of stuffing for a very long drinking window, finesse, lovely balance and moderate alcohol. With LMHB the wine of the vintage.

The ’09 and ’10 receive massive scores from Mr. Parker, noticeably higher than his colleagues. ’15 and ’16 receive massive scores across the board but, as mentioned earlier, scores ain’t what they used to be! The less fashionable ’12 and ’14 vintages offer value with ’15 and ’16 looking fully priced for now although leading the way in terms of a re-rating perhaps? They are the most expensive vintages on the market.

VCC does not deserve to trade at such crazy discounts to Petrus, Le Pin and Lafleur. The ’16 vintage is used as an example below.

Wine Market Investment Report September 2019

by Wine Owners

Posted on 2019-10-08

Is it time to hit the bottle?

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record, the market mood is sombre. It does, however, remain reasonably steady amidst a turbulent sea of macro factors.

Hong Kong is an important market for wine and the ongoing protests are a concern. The original cause of complaint, an extradition agreement between the territory and the Chinese mainland, has long since been retracted but the protests continue, becoming ever more violent. This is about democracy and freedom and the eyes of the world are watching. It is an uncomfortable position for China who cannot afford to handle the situation as perhaps it might in its own provinces but in the long term, remains a very powerful parent. Already the economic effects are being felt; officially occupancy rates in Hong Kong hotels are currently running at about 20%, unofficially they are in single digits. A quick internet search found a room in the territory for US$9 a night, including breakfast!

As we know, Hong Kong, apart from having its own burgeoning wine scene, is currently the gateway to the wine market of China, legally or otherwise. We expect China will open new free ports in time, but the current troubles may just accelerate that process. We think this is a short term problem but in the meantime, trade form that corner of the world is quiet.

U.S./China trade negotiations and Brexit shenanigans continue, and emerging markets are threatened by contagion emanating from Argentina. Thrown in the unrest in various parts of the Middle East and various other more localised scenarios, it’s a right old mess. And what does well in right old messes – physical assets! Here is the Gold price performance so far this year against the WO 150 index.

We’re not saying there is any correlation, delayed or otherwise, between wine and gold but recent financial history (since the last global financial crisis) has made physical and alternative assets increasingly popular.

We live in an era of negative real interest rates, where buyers of roughly a third of the world’s outstanding bonds will lose money if held to maturity and where even high yielding equities with strong balance sheets are not performing – all very sobering! With all this going on, is it time to hit the bottle?

Within the wine world, my investment themes remain the same; focus on regional allocation, combined with scarcity and relative value is the game.

Please contact miles.davis@wineowners.com with any questions.